BNZ Markets Today
Ukraine-Russia war escalation continues, after Russia fired an intercontinental ballistic missile for the first time. Market reaction was muted, although European currencies continue to struggle. The NZD is also languishing below 0.59 and NZD/AUD dipped below 0.90. US Treasuries continue to consolidate. There were mixed US second-tier data releases overnight.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow remains light. US equities are weaker for the first day this week, ahead of Nvidia’s earnings release. US Treasury yields pared an earlier lift, after reports that Ukraine fired British-made missiles into Russia, leaving the 10-year rate little changed for the day. The USD is broadly stronger, seeing the NZD back below 0.59.
BNZ Markets Today
There has been some market volatility overnight, on geopolitical news, following Russia’s publication of an updated nuclear arms doctrine and Ukraine firing long-range missiles into Russia. This caused a risk-off move, but markets quickly settled, and the net impact has been small. US equities are slightly stronger, US Treasury yields are slightly lower and commodity currencies have outperformed. The NZD has pushed up just over 0.59.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been a quiet start to the week with little newsflow. US equities have bounced back after last week’s losses. US Treasuries are little changed, with the 10-year note finding support just under 4.5%. For a change, the USD is broadly weaker, falling against all majors apart from the yen. The NZD hit a fresh 2024 low below 0.5840 before recovering to 0.5885.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities ended the week on a soft note with the S&P closing 1.3% lower. The index has retraced close to half of the 5% gains made following the election. Comments by US Federal Reserve Chair Powell that there is no need to hurry to cut rates given the strong economy, also weighed on sentiment, with the market reducing the chance of a 25bp cut at the December FOMC. An initial sell-off in US treasuries after the release of retail sales reversed, and the dollar index ended unchanged, with divergent performance across major currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
Looking at market movements, the easiest story to tell is one of exhaustion of the post-election Trump trades. US equities are down modestly, and US Treasury yields have fallen, despite stronger than expected US economic data. The USD reached a fresh high before turning down. The NZD found support at 0.5850 and has recovered a little to 0.5875.
BNZ Markets Today
After the selloff in the previous session, front end US treasuries recovered following CPI data that matched expectations and raised expectations of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve. US equity markets are little changed with major indices continuing to consolidate after the strong post-election rally. The US dollar extended its recent gains against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
The post-election surge in US equities has lost some momentum, as major indices consolidate near record highs, and investors look ahead to key US inflation data this evening. The S&P is marginally lower in afternoon trading. There were larger falls in European stocks with Euro Stoxx closing more than 2% lower. Treasury yields have moved sharply higher supporting the US dollar index which extended its uptrend. OPEC cut its oil demand forecasts for the fourth consecutive month with weak demand noted in China. Brent crude prices were little changed near US$72 per barrel.
BNZ Markets Today
Equity markets remained well supported to start the week. Post-election rotations continued with the economically sensitive Russell 2000 index of small-cap firms hitting the highest level since 2021. The S&P has advanced 0.2% by early afternoon in the absence of first-tier economic data or other catalysts. European equities made solid gains with the Euro Stoxx closing 1.2% higher.
BNZ Markets Today
The euphoria of Trump’s decisive win continued to reverberate through US equity markets as they notched up fresh record highs. For the same reason, the market continued to pare Fed rate cut expectations, driving a flatter US Treasuries curve, with higher short-term rates and a small fall in the 10-year rate. The USD was broadly stronger, with the NZD and AUD underperforming as China’s policy package was focused on a local government debt swap rather than stimulating consumer spending. The NZD closed the week near where it started, just under 0.5970.
BNZ Markets Today
Ahead of the Fed’s policy announcement soon after we go to print, there has been some reversal of the Trump trade in currency and bond markets, while US equities have continued to power ahead. The USD is broadly weaker, seeing the NZD push up through 0.60. US Treasury yields are lower, and the curve is flatter. The BoE delivered a 25bps rate cut, as expected, with guidance of further gradual rate cuts.
BNZ Markets Today
In the wake of a decisive victory for Trump and the Republican party at the US elections, market movements have been significant. US equities are up over 2% to a fresh record high, US Treasury yields are higher led by the long end with the 30-year rate up 20bps, and the USD is broadly stronger. While the NZD is down just over 1%, it has outperformed, with the drag from EM currencies including the yuan offset by the higher risk appetite backdrop.
BNZ Markets Today
As Americans head to the polls, market pricing has been consistent with “risk-on”, with stronger US equities, higher rates and a broadly weaker USD. The NZD and AUD have outperformed, more so the latter, following an RBA update that gave a reality check of inflation still being too high to warrant following the path of other central banks in easing monetary policy. The NZD is hovering around 0.60.
BNZ Markets Today
The week has kicked off with a reversal of the Trump trade as investors pared bets on him winning the presidential race. The USD is broadly lower and US rates are lower across the curve led by the long end. The NZD managed to temporarily rise above 0.60, but has settled at 0.5980 this morning, up 0.3% from last week’s close. Oil prices are up on OPEC+’s delay to increase supply and talk of Iran aggressively retaliating against Israel.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equity markets began the new month on a positive note despite weaker than expect US labour market data. The S&P closed 0.4% higher while stocks in Europe also advanced as investors look ahead to the FOMC and US election this week. Global bond yields whipsawed but ultimately ended higher after dropping immediately following the data. The US dollar was generally stronger against G10 currencies. After markets were closed, OPEC+ announced it plans to delay its December output hike by one month.
BNZ Markets Today
There has been plenty of newsflow to digest. US equities are ending the month on a weak note, reflecting weaker forward guidance by companies rather than macro forces. The reaction to the UK Budget continues to reverberate, with higher UK rates and a weaker GBP. The BoJ’s update, leaving the door open for a possible December rate hike, supported the yen. The NZD continues to languish and sits at 0.5960.
BNZ Markets Today
US equity markets struggled to gain traction, as investors remained focused on company earnings including technology companies Microsoft and Meta and digested robust US GDP data. The S&P is modestly higher in afternoon trading while European stocks declined despite Euro-area growth beating expectations. The Euro Stoxx index closed 1.2% lower. US treasuries moved modestly higher in yield and the US dollar index declined.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities are little changed in afternoon trade, amid mixed economic data, and ahead of key results from large US technology firms. Equities in Europe made a modest pullback with the Euro Stoxx closing 0.4% lower. Global bonds continued to move higher in yield and the US dollar index is marginally stronger. Brent crude prices stabilised near US$71 per barrel, following the recent sharp sell-off related to a reduction in the geopolitical risk premium, after Israel avoided striking Iranian oil facilities.
BNZ Markets Today
Since locals left for the long weekend, key market movements have been a plunge in oil prices, with Israel’s limited attack against Iran over, a weaker JPY following Japan’s Lower House elections which resulted in the ruling coalition losing its majority, and the Trump trade extending, with higher US Treasury yields, higher US equities and a broadly stronger USD. The NZD fell to a fresh multi-week low yesterday and continues to languish below 0.60.
BNZ Markets Today
Market movements have been modest, with US equities currently showing a small gain, while global rates are lower after their recent steady rise. Global PMI data were mostly in line with expectations, with small changes in October. Political polls continue to show rising support for Trump. The NZD shows little net movement overnight, back to 0.6020, after a minor rally to just over 0.6030.
BNZ Markets Today
The recent softer tone for global equities continued overnight, with the S&P down 0.9% in afternoon trade, and setting up for the third consecutive day of declines. The lacklustre performance of equities comes as investors have pared back bets on rapid policy easing, though the S&P is only ~1.5% below its all-time high, reached earlier in the month. European equity indices also closed lower. Global bond markets were mixed while the US dollar extended its recent gains. Spot gold prices pulled back from a record high, set in the Asian session, just below US$2760.
BNZ Markets Today
Global asset markets are little changed in the absence of first-tier economic data or other catalysts. US equity markets are marginally lower in afternoon trade with investors focused on corporate earnings. If the S&P closes lower, it will be the first back-to-back decline in more than a month. European equities pared earlier declines but still edged lower at the close. Global bond yields moved higher, and the US dollar is modestly stronger against developed market currencies. Oil prices increased close to 2%, with Brent Crude trading above $76 per barrel.
BNZ Markets Today
Global rates are broadly higher without a satisfactory explanation. US Treasury yields are up 7-9bps across the curve with some even larger moves in many European countries. Higher rates have driven weaker equity markets, with a modest fall in US equities in early afternoon trading. The USD is broadly stronger, with 0.6-0.7% falls for the NZD and AUD from last week’s close, seeing the NZD down at 0.6030.
BNZ Markets Today
Last week ended on a quiet note, but that didn’t stop US equities extending their record-breaking run. There were only small moves in US Treasury yields and currency movements were modest. The NZD traded a tight range and closed the week around 0.6070.
BNZ Markets Today
Stronger than expected US retail sales data saw the market pare the scope for easier Fed policy and drove higher US Treasury yields. The ECB cut rates and the market added to bets that the ECB would step up the pace of easing going forward against the backdrop of lower inflation and downside risks to growth. Currency moves have been modest but JPY and EUR underperformed. The AUD was supported after a strong labour market report and the NZD has range-traded around 0.6060.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow has been light, but US equities are currently in positive territory after yesterday’s weakness. Much weaker than expected UK CPI data pushed down UK rates, which spilled over into lower European rates and Treasuries. The USD is broadly stronger as the Trump trade continues. The NZD regained some poise after a dip following soft CPI data that saw the market bring forward NZ rate cuts. While the NZD is languishing around 0.6060, NZD/AUD and NZD/GBP crosses are higher.
BNZ Markets Today
The S&P retraced from its all-time high following news that US officials were discussing capping exports of advanced AI chips. Technology stocks also weighed on European markets. Chinese equities declined as investors wait for more details of a stimulus package first announced by Beijing in September. Officials from China’s housing ministry, finance ministry and the Peoples Bank of China will hold a briefing tomorrow to outline measures to support the property sector and bolster growth. Global bond yields declined, and the US dollar is little changed.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities continue their record-breaking run on the US public holiday, with the cash treasuries market closed. Market reaction to the underwhelming weekend policy announcement by China’s MoF was well contained. The USD is broadly stronger, and the NZD has settled just below 0.61, with only small movements on the crosses.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equity markets were well supported into the weekly close. The S&P closed above 5800 at another record high as banking stocks gained after reporting solid earnings. The KBW Bank Index hit the highest level since April 2022, on the back of better-than-expected results from JPMorgan and Wells Fargo. Both banks provided a positive commentary on the economy which supported the soft landing narrative. Global bond markets ended modestly higher in yield and the US dollar was stable against major currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
US equity markets are little changed with the S&P consolidating near record highs. There was limited lasting impact from higher than expected US CPI data. Global bond yields were little changed overall, and major currencies were mixed against the US dollar. Oil prices gained with Brent crude trading back to US$79 per barrel. Chinese equities remain volatile, and posted strong gains yesterday, as investors look ahead to the weekend briefing on fiscal policy by officials from the Ministry of Finance.
BNZ Markets Today
US equity markets remained well underpinned ahead of key inflation data with the S&P increasing 0.5% to a fresh record high. European equities also gained with the Euro Stoxx closing 0.7% higher. There was limited economic data to provide direction and Fed officials continued with the recent narrative of a gradual easing cycle. Treasury yields moved higher supporting the US dollar. The NZD remained heavy after the sharp fall following the RBNZ rate decision yesterday. Brent crude extended lower towards US$76 per barrel.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities have rebounded from the previous session with the S&P up 0.8% in afternoon trade, despite falls in Asia and Europe, after Chinese officials held off announcing more stimulus. The Euro Stoxx closed 0.4% lower. Global bond markets are little changed in the absence of first-tier economic data to provide direction. The US dollar was generally stable, and oil prices retraced from recent highs. Brent crude fell toward US$77 per barrel having traded above US$81 earlier this week.
BNZ Markets Today
Global bond yields continued to move higher with 10-year US treasuries trading back above 4%. This is the highest level since August, as investors continued to recalibrate the outlook for monetary policy, after the upside surprise to labour market data last week. US equities are marginally lower in afternoon trade while the Euro Stoxx index edged higher despite very weak German factory orders. The US dollar was mixed, and the NZD extended its recent fall.
BNZ Markets Today
Stronger than expected US labour market data contributed to large moves across financial markets into the end of last week. US treasuries led global bond yields higher as investors recalibrated expectations for easing by the Federal Reserve. The US dollar made broad based gains which saw NZD/USD trade below 0.6150. The prospect of a soft landing for the US economy outweighed concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East and supported equity markets with the S&P advancing close to 1%. Brent crude prices reached US$79 per barrel before pulling back but are still ~9% higher over last week.
BNZ Markets Today
The market continues to trade cautiously, as it awaits Israel’s expected retaliation against Iran and key US employment data tonight. Oil prices are much higher on the fear on Iran’s oil facilities being a target. The combination of higher oil prices and a strong US ISM services survey has driven US Treasury yields higher. The USD is broadly stronger and GBP is the weakest of the majors, following dovish comments by BoE Governor Bailey.
BNZ Markets Today
Following yesterday’s volatile session, after Iran’s missile attack on Israel, markets are calmer as they await the next move. US equities are currently flat and US Treasury yields have pushed higher, a combination of some mean revision and a stronger than expected ADP payrolls figure. The yen is much weaker after dovish comments by Japan’s new PM and the BoJ Governor. The NZD has also underperformed overnight, probing lows near 0.6260.
BNZ Markets Today
Geopolitical factors have outweighed economic data releases in their market impact overnight. Iran launched a missile attack against Israel, resulting in a typical market response, with much higher oil prices, lower equities and lower rates. Safe haven currencies have outperformed. The NZD is down nearly 1½% from this time yesterday, including a 0.6% fall overnight, with underperformance following a soft QSBO, which supports the case for a more front-loaded RBNZ rate cut cycle.
BNZ Markets Today
China’s equity market continued to surge in the aftermath of last week’s policy stimulus announcement. The China trade has helped drive the NZD and AUD up to fresh highs for the year. Following last week’s soft euro area PMI data and sub 2% readings for regional inflation measures, ECB President gave a nod to another 25bps rate cut for the October meeting. A stronger ANZ business survey drove a turnaround in domestic rates yesterday and all eyes will be on the QSBO today.
BNZ Markets Today
Weaker CPI figures for France and Spain, following weak euro area PMI data earlier in the week, drove the market to price in higher odds of the ECB cutting rates at its next meeting. US PCE inflation metrics were also market-friendly, and added to the support seen for US Treasuries, with lower rates on Friday in the order of 5-7bps. The yen strengthened after an LDP candidate sympathetic to the BoJ’s tightening cycle got the nod to become the next PM. The NZD traded at a fresh high for the year in the afterglow of China’s smorgasbord of policy stimulus measures, while NZD/JPY fell over 1½% towards 90.
BNZ Markets Today
A pledge by China to provide further stimulus to promote growth has supported risk appetite and Asia-Pacific currencies. The NZD is up 1%, driving back up through 0.63. US and European equities have increased to fresh record highs. Stronger US economic data drove higher US Treasury yields, led by the short end, resulting in the curve flattening, a reversal of the pressure seen over the past week or so. Oil prices fell 3% after a report that Saudi Arabia is looking to raise production and accept lower oil prices.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equity markets are little changed in the absence of first-tier economic data or other catalysts. The S&P is marginally lower in afternoon trade while stocks in Europe also closed modestly lower. Global bond yields moved higher, and the US dollar bounced strongly off the recent lows. NZD/USD, which traded above 0.6350 yesterday, has fallen back below 0.6270.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk appetite has been supported by a smorgasbord of Chinese easing measures to support the economy, while the RBA update was seen as dovish and weaker US consumer confidence was also a market moving event. Equity markets are higher and global rates are lower as markets price in more Fed and ECB easing. Curves are steeper. Broad-based fall in USD evident, with NZD leading the charge, up to its highest level this year, above 0.6330 and NZD/AUD up to 0.92.
BNZ Markets Today
Weaker euro area PMI data drove down rates in the region and dragged down the euro. UK PMI data weren’t as soft, while the US services PMI remained robust and inflation indicators were stronger. A move higher in US Treasury yields proved temporary and rates are now slightly lower across the curve. Commodity currencies have outperformed, with the NZD up to 0.6280 and NZD/EUR up 1% towards 0.5650. Equity markets show modest gains.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equities couldn’t extend the previous Fed-inspired rally on Friday night with the S&P closing modestly lower while European stocks made larger declines. The Euro Stoxx index fell 1.5%. There was limited first-tier economic data to provide the market with direction. Global bonds ended the session marginally higher in yield while the dollar was generally firmer against G10 currencies. Gold hit a fresh record high above US$2600 per ounce.
BNZ Markets Today
In the afterglow of the Fed’s jumbo 50bps rate cut, US equities show a strong lift to fresh record highs while the US Treasuries curve has steepened further, with longer term yields pushing higher, not helped by jobless claims falling and higher oil prices. The USD is broadly weaker. Against a backdrop of higher risk appetite, the NZD has recovered to 0.6250. GBP outperformed after the market pared rate cut expectations following the BoE’s on-hold decision.
BNZ Markets Today
Global asset markets were generally stable overnight ahead of the widely anticipated US Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision. The Fed began its easing cycle with a 50bps cut in the Fed Funds Rate. This was larger than the economists’ estimates for a 25bps reduction, but market pricing implied around a 70% chance of a larger 50bps cut. It was not a unanimous decision with Governor Michelle Bowman dissenting in favour of a 25bps reduction. The US dollar fell alongside treasury yields while equity markets gained immediately following the decision.
BNZ Markets Today
The S&P reached a new record high intra-day, before paring its gains to be little changed in afternoon trade, as investors look ahead to the September FOMC. US retail sales for August was broadly in line with expectations and didn’t provide the market with additional guidance for the size of the Fed’s first rate cut in the easing cycle. Stocks in Europe gained with the Euro Stoxx advancing 0.7%. Global bond yields are modestly higher, and the US dollar is generally stronger against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
US rates are lower across the board on rising bets that the Fed will front-load the easing cycle, starting with a 50bps rate cut later this week. Lower rates have supported US equities but have worked against the USD, which is broadly weaker. The NZD has recovered to 0.6190 and USD/JPY made a brief foray below 140. Domestic rates continue to follow the lead of the US market, with substantial easing priced in over coming meetings, much closer to a run of 50bps rather than 25bps cuts.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets closed on Friday with the pricing for the Fed’s first easing for the cycle this week at a toss up between 25bps and 50bps, with media reports adding to the “confusion”. The US Treasuries curve steepened further, with a short end-led rally in bonds. Lower rates supported US equities, adding to the strong gains for the week. Commodity currencies slightly underperformed, seeing the NZD close the week just below 0.6160.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities traded higher despite data which showed US wholesale inflation picked up in August. The S&P is up 0.7% while the Euro Stoxx closed more than 1% higher following a 25bp rate cut by the European Central Bank (ECB). Treasuries moved higher in yield and the US dollar was generally weaker. Oil prices gained almost 2% after a storm disrupted production in the Gulf of Mexico. Brent crude has rebounded above US$72 per barrel. Gold prices hit an all-time high above US$2550 per troy ounce.
BNZ Markets Today
There has been some volatility in markets overnight. US equities recovered early losses to now show a decent gain. US CPI data drove a swing in US Treasury yields and slightly higher core inflation sees the curve flatter and slightly higher. Trading in the yen has been choppy but less so for the NZD, which shows some modest underperformance, with NZD/USD down to 0.6135 and NZD/AUD falling below 0.92.
BNZ Markets Today
The key market move has been a further chunky fall in oil prices, down in the order of 3½-4%, taking Brent crude below USD69 per barrel. Lower oil prices have supported lower interest rates, with US Treasury yields probing fresh lows. US equities are modestly higher while in currency markets JPY has outperformed, against the backdrop of lower global rates. The NZD is up slightly around 0.6155 and higher on the key major crosses apart from a fall in NZD/JPY.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow has been light to start the week. US equities have rebounded after last week’s hefty loss but otherwise market movements have been well contained. US Treasury rates show net movements of 3bps or less from last week’s close, while the USD shows a modest broadly based gain. The NZD trades around 0.6150 this morning.
BNZ Markets Today
Weaker than expected US labour market data contributed to volatility across financial markets on Friday night. Growth sensitive assets traded lower with large falls across global equities. The S&P fell 1.7%, extending its weekly decline to 4.3%, the largest since March last year. US treasury yields whipsawed but ultimately ended lower in yield. The US dollar index made modest gains. Oil remained soft – Brent crude traded below US$71 per barrel – which is the lowest level in eighteen months.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equity markets remain soft with the S&P modestly lower in afternoon trade, and facing its third consecutive daily loss, as investors look ahead to the key US payrolls data later this evening. European equities fell – the Euro Stoxx declined 0.7%. Treasury yields are modestly lower in choppy trade and the US dollar is weaker against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
Further signs of cooling in the US labour market contributed to lower yields across bond markets and global equities remained soft after the sharp decline in the previous session. The S&P opened lower and is currently close to flat. Equities fell in Europe – the Euro Stoxx closed 1.3% lower – and Asian stocks also declined with the Nikkei falling 4%. The US dollar fell with the move concentrated against the yen. Brent crude traded below US$73 per barrel to fresh lows for the year. It was reported that OPEC+ members are close to agreement to delay a planned production increase amid weak global demand and increased supply.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equity markets came under pressure as US investors returned from the long weekend. The S&P fell more than 1.5%, the largest fall since the volatile period at the beginning of August. US equities extended their decline after a soft manufacturing ISM report. Equities in Europe also fell declined amid the rising risk aversion with the Euro Stoxx falling more than 1%. Global bond markets rallied, and the US dollar was broadly stronger.
BNZ Markets Today
Asset markets were confined to narrow ranges with limited economic data and the Labor Day holiday in the US weighing on market activity. European equities made modest gains with the Euro Stoxx index advancing 0.3%. US S&P futures are little changed since the open yesterday and have maintained the gains from the sharp rally into month end at the end of last week. Asian stocks declined reacting to the lacklustre Chinese PMIs released in the weekend with the Hang Seng losing 1.7%. European bonds moved higher in yield while the US dollar was mixed against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
After a volatile beginning to the month, the S&P gained 2% in August. The index rebounded from an earlier dip on Friday, to close 1% higher, supported by benign US inflation data. The Euro Stoxx was little changed while Asian equities ended higher. Chinese property stocks were underpinned by news that policy makers are considering allowing homeowners to refinance as much as US$5.4 trillion in mortgages. Global bonds ended higher in yield and the US dollar advanced. Oil prices fell sharply after it was reported that OPEC+ plans to proceed with previously announced output hikes in coming months.
BNZ Markets Today
US Treasury yields are slightly higher after an upward revision to US GDP, driven by consumer spending, and this has helped support the USD, with added support as EUR weakened following weaker German CPI inflation. Most US equities are higher, with a fall of 6% for Nvidia a drag on the S&P500. A stronger ANZ business outlook survey supported the NZD yesterday although it has slipped modestly overnight to 0.6260.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow remains light. US equities have edged higher, US Treasury yields show small movements but a clear curve steepening bias, and the US is broadly weaker. The NZD is probing a fresh seven-month high just over 0.6250 and is up for the day on the key crosses.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets are consolidating following the initial excitement following Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech at the end of last week. US equities are down modestly, US Treasuries show small changes, and the USD is slightly stronger. The NZD has given up some of its big gain last week and has settled just over the 0.62 mark. Oil prices surged 3% due to Libya domestic issues rather than rising geopolitical risk.
BNZ Markets Today
Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on Friday was much anticipated and his nod to commencing interest rate cuts from September and protecting the labour market were music to the ears of investors. Risk appetite increased, with US equities up over 1%, Treasury yields fell led by the short end, the USD was broadly weaker and commodity currencies outperformed as commodity prices rose. The NZD ended the week just over 0.6230, its highest level since January and it was higher on all the key crosses. The new week begins with increased tension in the Middle East after Israel and Lebanon exchanged missile attacks.