BNZ Markets Today
The S&P powered to a fresh record high close, in a shortened trading session, ahead of the July 4 US holiday. A series of weaker than expected economic prints, headlined by services ISM, strengthened the case for Fed rate cuts this year. European equities also had a strong session with the Euro Stoxx gaining more than 1%. Global bond yields fell led by a rally in treasuries and the US dollar made broad based losses against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
US equity markets eked out modest gains in a continuation of the recent narrow trading ranges as the market consolidates the strong rally in June. The S&P is up 0.4% in early afternoon trading, and recovered off the session lows, after Fed Chair Powell made comments that disinflation appears to be resuming. European equities closed lower with the Euro Stoxx falling 0.5%. Global bond markets are marginally lower in the yield.
BNZ Markets Today
US treasury yields moved higher despite the manufacturing ISM coming in below expectations. The S&P lacked strong directional bias and continued to consolidate above 5,500, just below the record highs. Risk premia on European assets reduced on indications that the far-right victory in the French election was less decisive than some had expected.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equity markets ended the last trading session for the quarter marginally lower. An initial rally for the S&P, which gained close to 1% and reached an intra-day record high, faded and the index closed 0.4% lower. European stocks also declined modestly with investor sentiment impacted by ahead of France’s legislative elections. US treasury yields ended higher, after a temporary dip following benign inflation data.
BNZ Markets Today
In contrast to the dull market conditions earlier this week, there has been a bit more price action to talk about. USD/JPY marched up through 160 with ease, to a fresh 38-year high, raising the chance of forthcoming yen intervention. The PBoC continues to allow a slightly softer yuan, while the AUD outperformed after a strong monthly CPI print that caught the market off guard. Against a backdrop of broad USD strength, the NZD has fallen to just below 0.6080, underperforming on NZD/AUD cross selling pressure.
BNZ Markets Today
Market movements continue to be well contained. US equities are up modestly, US Treasuries yields are up slightly and the USD index is slightly stronger. Canadian inflation figures positively surprised, but this had more sustained impact on rates than the CAD. The NZD has traded a tight range and is down slightly to 0.6120.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been a quiet start to the week in what could be a quiet week overall. Market movements have been well-contained. The S&P500 is down slightly, US Treasury yields show little net change and the USD is broadly weaker, with the NZD slightly higher around 0.6130. Oil prices continue to push higher.
BNZ Markets Today
Softer than expected preliminary PMI data across Europe set the tone for markets into the weekly close. European equities underperformed with Euro Stoxx falling 0.8%, partially reversing gains from earlier last week, as the risk premium related to the fiscal backdrop in France stabilised. The S&P ended a largely directionless session marginally lower. The US dollar advanced against G10 currencies and global bonds were little changed, rebounding from an earlier move lower in yields.
BNZ Markets Today
There has been plenty of news to digest but market movements have been well-contained. A string of softer US data releases didn’t perturb the market, with US equities flat, US Treasury yields slightly higher and the USD broadly stronger. The BoE opened the door for a first rate cut this cycle in August while the Swiss National Bank cut rates again. NZ rates rose yesterday after NZ GDP showed a small increase and against a backdrop of higher global rates. The NZD is around 0.6125 while a weaker yen has pushed up NZD/JPY to fresh highs.
BNZ Markets Today
Global markets were confined to narrow ranges with the US observing a public holiday. US equity, bonds, and most commodity markets were closed. European equities traded lower with the Euro Stoxx falling 0.6%. The Hang Seng had a strong session and advanced nearly 3%. The move was attributed to further market-friendly reforms such as allowing Chinese investors to buy Hong Kong stocks using the yuan. Currency markets were subdued, and European bond yields ended marginally higher in yield.
BNZ Markets Today
A weaker than expected US retail sales report supported US Treasuries, dragging the 10-year rate down to as low as 4.20% and pushed down the USD, reversing earlier strength. The AUD has outperformed after a more hawkish than expected RBA update. The NZD recovered to 0.6140 after a test of 0.61, while NZD/AUD is modestly weaker at 0.9230.
BNZ Markets Today
European markets have settled after last week’s selloff, with French assets recovering somewhat. US equities have continued their record-breaking run while, after last week’s strong rally, US Treasury yields are modestly higher. Currency movements have been small, with the NZD giving up a little of last week’s gain and the euro being the best performer, albeit up only 0.3%.
BNZ Markets Today
A risk off tone dominated global markets into the end of last week as concern about the political crisis in France deepened. European equities were under pressure with the Euro Stoxx falling 2% and the spread between French and German 10-year bonds increased to 77bps, the widest level in more than 10 years. The impact on US equities was more muted with the S&P recovering from an early session dip to close unchanged. Global bond yields declined, and the dollar was broadly stronger.
BNZ Markets Today
Much softer than expected US PPI data and a further increase in jobless claims supported US Treasuries, taking yields down 7-8bps across the curve. Concerns around France remain the focus in Europe and with spillover impact for currency markets, with the NZD stuck near 0.6170 despite the weaker US data. NZD/EUR rises to its highest level since early January.
BNZ Markets Today
Softer than expected US CPI data contributed to large moves across global markets ahead of the FOMC. Bond yields fell sharply as investors increased the amount of easing expected by the Fed this year. The US dollar declined. Equity markets advanced with the S&P making a fresh all-time high. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) left rates unchanged as expected. The Fed’s forecasts signalled one 25bps rate this year, down from 75bps in March.
BNZ Markets Today
There has been continued fallout from French President Macron’s decision to call early parliamentary elections, with a flight to quality within European assets. EUR underperformed again and NZD/EUR is at a four-month high. US rates have pushed lower ahead of the key US CPI report tonight, followed closely by the Fed’s policy update. The NZD has outperformed, lifting to 0.6145.
BNZ Markets Today
The outcome of European Parliament elections has been the key driver of markets to start the week, with French President Macron’s call for a snap election after his party’s poor result negatively impacting French assets in particular and dragging down the euro. Elsewhere, the focus is on US CPI data and the Fed’s policy update later in the week, with markets in a holding pattern until then. The US 10-year rate is up 3bps, US equities are slightly higher and the NZD and AUD have recovered modestly after Friday’s heavy loss.
BNZ Markets Today
An upside surprise to US nonfarm payrolls and strong wage growth contributed to sharply higher global bond yields and a broad-based gain for the US dollar. The S&P, which had initially traded to a fresh intra-day record high ahead of the data, dropped close to 0.5% before rebounding and ending the session little changed. Equity markets were generally softer in Europe and Asia. Global credit markets were little changed with spreads remaining close to the tightest level in several years.
BNZ Markets Today
Net market movements have been mostly small, with signs of consolidation across equities, bonds and currencies. European rates are slightly higher after the ECB’s “hawkish cut” and Treasury yields are little changed. The NZD has consolidated around the 0.62 mark and cross movements are negligible. Oil has been the biggest mover, up 2%.
BNZ Markets Today
Buoyant investor risk sentiment contributed to strong rallies across major equity indices. The S&P is up close to 1% in early afternoon trade, retesting the record high of 5342 reached back in May. The move was underpinned by gains in technology stocks. European stocks also had a strong session with the Stoxx up 1.6% ahead of the European Central Bank (ECB) meeting this evening. Price action was choppy in currency and bond markets amid mixed economic data. Global bond yields are lower.
BNZ Markets Today
US Treasury yields have fallen for a fourth successive day, seeing the 10-year rate down towards 4.3%, supported by safe-haven flows after some surprising EM election results, lower oil prices, and softer US labour market data. The USD is broadly stronger overnight, seeing the NZD slightly weaker after its run towards 0.62 yesterday. The yen has outperformed as the market anticipates less BoJ bond buying ahead.
BNZ Markets Today
US equity markets have started the new month on the back foot, following weaker than expected ISM data, which also led to lower treasury yields and a weaker US dollar. Major European indices advanced while Asian markets made solid gains. Oil prices fell sharply after OPEC+ announced plans to phase out its production cutbacks.
BNZ Markets Today
US Treasury yields reversed course after their rise this week, encouraged by weaker data releases overnight. The 10-year rate is down 6bps to 4.55% with a slightly flatter curve. The USD also reversed course and is broadly weaker, seeing the NZD recover overnight to 0.6125 after a brief dip below 0.61 just after the NZ close yesterday. Market reaction to the NZ Budget was minimal.
BNZ Markets Today
A continued move higher in global bond yields and further tepid demand for US treasury supply weighed on investor risk appetite. Major European equity indices fell close to 1% lower while the S&P is down 0.5% in early afternoon trade. There was limited economic data to provide the market with direction. The US dollar advanced alongside higher bond yields and made broad-based gains against developed market currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
A surprise jump in US consumer confidence and weak demand for US Treasuries at the 2 and 5-year auctions have driven up US rates, the 10-year rate rising over 7bps. This reversed earlier weakness in the USD, resulting in small net currency movements for the day. After reaching a fresh 11-week high of 0.6170 overnight, the NZD has fallen back down to 0.6140.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been a quiet start to the week with US and UK markets closed for holidays. Of note, some dovish comments from key ECB members pushed down European yields but with limited impact on the euro. US equity futures are slightly higher, and US 10-year Treasury futures are little changed. The NZD pushed up to fresh two-month highs just over 0.6150.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equity markets were mixed into the end of last week. Major European indices were marginally lower, closing at the weakest level in two weeks and the Hang Seng dropped 1.6%, extending the correction after the sharp move higher over the past month. The S&P gained 0.7% after data showed US inflation expectations had receded. Trading volumes were below average ahead of the US public holiday. Tech stocks led the rally and the Nasdaq closed at a fresh record high. Treasuries were little changed, while the US dollar was weaker.
BNZ Markets Today
Much stronger than expected US PMI data drove US rates and the USD higher and US equities lower overnight. This saw the NZD lose earlier gains, and it trades back just under 0.61. The spillover from Wednesday’s hawkish RBNZ policy update continued, with domestic rates higher, led by the short-end, NZD/AUD rising to a fresh five-week high, and NZD/JPY up to a 17-year high.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equity markets are modestly lower as investors look ahead to Nvidia’s quarterly earnings that are published after the US close. The size and volatility of Nvidia makes it an important bellwether for the broader market. The FTSE100 fell 0.5%, its largest drop in more than a month, after stronger than expected inflation data reduced the prospect for rate cuts from the Bank of England (BOE). Global bond yields are higher, and the US dollar was marginally stronger against the majority of G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
More hawkish commentary from Fed speakers hasn’t perturbed the rates market, with US Treasury yields down slightly on the day. US equities are flat and currency movements have been small, with the NZD trading just below the 0.61 mark. Domestic focus will be on the RBNZ’s MPS this afternoon, with expectations of little change in tone from previous messages.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been a quiet start to the week for most markets, with US Treasury yields up slightly, US equities up modestly and modest currency movements. After last week’s outperformance, the NZD is trading softer, just above 0.61 after a brief dip below the figure overnight.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equity markets were little changed into the end of last week in the absence of fresh market catalysts or first-tier economic data. The exception was Chinese stocks which continued to push higher, despite mixed activity data, with investors focused on new measures from policy makers aimed at stabilising the housing market and boosting consumer sentiment. The Hang Seng was close to 1% higher on Friday taking its weekly advance to nearly 4% and is easily the best performing major market in May.
BNZ Markets Today
The key market move overnight has been a retracement of US Treasuries, with yields steadily higher, reversing the fall seen following the US CPI release the previous night. This hasn’t perturbed equity markets, with the Dow Jones index breaking 40,000 for the first time, but the rates-sensitive JPY is the weakest major overnight and NZD/JPY reached 95. The NZD is flat around 0.6120.
BNZ Markets Today
Global asset markets made strong gains following the widely anticipated US CPI data, which along with softer than expected retail sales, contributed to markets bringing forward expectations of when the Federal Reserve will begin its easing cycle. The S&P rallied close to 1% which took the index to a fresh all-time high above 5300 and European stocks also closed at record levels. US treasury yields moved sharply lower, and the US dollar was significantly weaker.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets remain in a holding pattern ahead of tonight’s key US CPI release. There was some sticker shocker from a higher PPI print overnight, but on further reflection the data were mixed, and the spike in the USD and rates was very short-lived. US equities are up modestly, US Treasury yields are down slightly, and the USD is broadly weaker, seeing the NZD push up to 0.6040.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been a typically quiet start to the week with little newsflow to drive markets. Global equity markets are flat, US Treasury yields are down slightly, and currency movements have been modest. The NZD is flat, consolidating just over the 0.60 mark.
BNZ Markets Today
Weaker than expected US consumer confidence data and higher treasury yields, following a rise in inflation expectations, contributed to the S&P retracing from earlier gains to close modestly higher on Friday. Across the Atlantic, UK and European stocks closed at record levels, with the former helped by stronger than expected GDP data. The Hang Seng – which is the best performing global index in May - rallied 1.5% following reports of a tax waiver plan for China domiciled investors that access Hong Kong shares via Stock Connect.
BNZ Markets Today
Global markets were generally confined to narrow ranges in the absence of first-tier economic data or other catalysts. After four days of consecutive gains, the S&P was little changed in early afternoon trade. Equities in Europe remained well supported with key indices extending recent gains to fresh record highs. The FTSE was up 0.5% matching the gains for the region wide Stoxx 600. Global bond yields are modestly higher while the US dollar index was little changed.
BNZ Markets Today
Against a backdrop of little fresh news, US Treasury yields continue to edge lower, with the 10-year rate down to a four-week low. The USD is stronger, although movements have been small to modest across the board and the NZD is close to 0.60.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been a quiet start to the week in what will likely be a quiet week overall, with a very light economic and event calendar. With UK and Japan holidays, trading conditions are lighter than normal. Global rates are slightly lower, with the US 10-year rate consolidating just below 4.5%. The NZD has spent most of the day consolidating just over 0.60, while the yen is weaker after last week’s strong recovery.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equity markets made solid gains on Friday. Weaker than expected US labour market data in conjunction with a soft services ISM pointed towards moderating economic activity, and rekindled hopes for rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year. The S&P gained 1.2%, the largest advance in more than two months. US treasury yields declined sharply after the data but rebounded off the lows while the US dollar was weaker against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets have settled after the flurry following the Fed’s policy update yesterday and the moves have been in a similar direction, with US Treasury yields falling further and the USD weaker. JPY has outperformed, after another bout of official intervention shook out some more speculative positions. The NZD has pushed up through 0.5960.
BNZ Markets Today
The Fed’s policy update didn’t offer any surprises and there was little initial market reaction, but US rates and the USD fell during Chair Powell’s press conference, where the clear message was one of an easing bias, with a rate hike “unlikely”. As we go to print, US Treasuries are down around 10bps on the day and the NZD is trading at its highs, up towards 0.5940.
BNZ Markets Today
Investor risk sentiment was undermined into April month end by US economic data that revealed persistent wage pressures and a sharp fall in consumer confidence. The S&P fell close to 1% and looks set for its weakest monthly performance since September.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk appetite is slightly higher at the start of the new week. The key market movement has been yen volatility, with signs of official intervention after the currency cratered in early Asia trading. USD/JPY has traded within a 3.5% range and has settled around 156. The USD is broadly weaker, and the NZD has pushed up towards the 0.60 mark. Global rates are modestly lower.
BNZ Markets Today
Global asset markets advanced into the end of last week. The S&P gained more than 1%, underpinned by strength in technology companies, following upbeat earnings reports from Alphabet and Microsoft. Equities were also supported by personal consumption expenditure (PCE) data which revealed strong consumption and inflation, which was in line with expectations, and not as high as some investors had feared after the Q1 data released the previous day.
BNZ Markets Today
The US GDP report released overnight could be described as anti-Goldilocks, with both weaker growth and higher inflation than expected. The rates market was more focused on the latter than the former, seeing a further paring of US rate cut expectations, sending yields higher. A stronger USD reaction wasn’t sustained and the NZD is little changed at 0.5945 from where we left it ahead of the ANZAC day holiday. The yen continues to underperform, raising the spectre of official intervention. A better strategy would be for the BoJ to convey a more hawkish tone at today’s policy update.
BNZ Markets Today
Investor risk appetite has continued to recover underpinning global equities. The S&P gained more than 1% as the market looks ahead to corporate results from large technology companies. The FTSE 100 traded to a new all-time high before retracing amid a broad-based rally across European stocks. US treasury yields fell following weaker than expected preliminary PMIs for April, which contrasted with evidence of a recovery in Europe, and contributed to a weaker US dollar.
BNZ Markets Today
There has been little newsflow to kick-start the week but risk appetite is higher as Middle East tensions settle. US equities rebounded after a weak run, the UK FTSE100 closed at a fresh closing high and commodity currencies have outperformed. The NZD has consolidated above the 0.59 mark and is flat to higher on the key major cross rates. There have only been small changes in US Treasury yields.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equity markets traded lower on Friday, but pared the worst of the losses that came amid a sharp rise in investor risk aversion following news that Israel had launched retaliatory strikes against Iran. Risk sentiment recovered after Iran’s state media played down the damage from the attacks raising hopes that the hostilities wouldn’t escalate into a broader conflict. US treasuries ended little changed, reversing an earlier fall in yields, while the US dollar was stable. Brent crude ended the week at US$87.30, having jumped as high as US$90.75, earlier in the session.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow has remained light, generating modest movements in asset prices. US equities are down modestly while US Treasury yields have pushed higher, with a stronger Philly Fed survey and hawkish Fed-speak not helping. The USD is broadly stronger, reversing the previously day’s loss, with the NZD nudging down to 0.59.
BNZ Markets Today
There is a modest risk-off tone in the air, with US equities weaker, US Treasury yields lower, credit spreads wider and oil prices weaker. Currency movements haven’t been affected by the risk-off move, with the USD broadly weaker overnight. The NZD and AUD have been the best performers over the past 24 hours, with higher rates post the NZ CPI supporting a move for the NZD above 0.59, which has been sustained overnight.
BNZ Markets Today
Global bond market remained under pressure. US treasuries yields made fresh highs for the year which constrained equity market performance. The S&P was marginally lower in early afternoon trade, with limited rebound from recent weakness, despite trading at one-month lows. The VIX gauge of US stock market volatility remained elevated reflecting the uncertain geopolitical backdrop. In currency markets, the US dollar was confined to a choppy range. Asian currencies were in focus after the PBOC set a weaker daily reference rate for the yuan and the yen was volatile amid intervention concerns.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets continue to trade with a cautious tone, with Israel vowing to retaliate against Iran’s weekend attack. US equities are down close to 1% and oil prices are barely lower, with Brent crude about USD90. US Treasury yields rose to fresh 2024 highs, with much stronger than expected US retail sales being a factor. The USD has been well supported, with the yen, NZD and AUD notable underperformers, weakening to fresh lows.
BNZ Markets Today
Risk aversion gripped global assets markets into the end of last week amid rising geopolitical tensions. There were growing concerns that Iran could launch a retaliatory attack on Israel following the air strike on the Iranian consulate in Syria. Over the weekend, Iran’s military seized an Israeli-linked container ship, and launched drones and missiles towards Israel, in a significant escalation of hostilities. These developments will weigh on investor rise appetite as Israel calibrates a response.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets have settled after the shock from the hot CPI print the previous night, helped in part by a more benign PPI print. US Treasury yields show only small movements, with a modestly steeper curve led by a retracement in the 2-year rate. The 10-year Treasury found support with yields just under 4.6% overnight. US equities have bounced back. The ECB’s in-line policy update had little impact on the market, while the NZD and AUD have outperformed with the NZD close to 0.60.
BNZ Markets Today
Stronger than expected US CPI data, contributed to a reassessment about how soon the US Federal Reserve might cut rates, and prompted large moves across global asset markets. US treasury yields surged higher contributing to broad based gains in the US dollar. The higher rates backdrop undermined equites. The S&P fell more than 1% to retest the lows near 5140 from last week.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been another uneventful day in financial markets, with the key move being a steady fall in US Treasury yields after the recent lift to 2024 highs, ahead of tonight’s key US CPI report. US equities are down modestly. Currency moves have been small in net terms although the NZD and AUD remain on the positive side of the ledger as global commodity prices continue to push higher.
BNZ Markets Today
Market movements have been well contained to kick off the week without any key catalysts to perturb pricing. There was a total eclipse of the sun in the US and a total eclipse of the year-to-date highs for US rates overnight, before they settled back down, seeing the 10-year Treasury yield little changed from the NZ close. US equities are slightly higher and the USD is slightly weaker. The NZD and AUD have outperformed a touch, supported by higher commodity prices.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities advanced following labour market data which pointed towards a resilient economy and intensified the debate about when the Federal Reserve might begin to ease monetary policy. The S&P gained more than 1%, rebounding from the weak previous session, which saw the index fall more than 2% from intra-day highs and the VIX spike to the highest level this year.