BNZ Markets Today
Investor risk appetite has recovered since President Trump delayed the implementation of tariffs on Mexico and Canada by a month despite an escalation in trade tensions with China. The delay raised hopes that tariffs represent a negotiating tool of the new US administration rather than a final objective. The S&P is 0.7% higher, and more than 2% above the low, reached after the gap weaker on Monday morning. Treasury yields are modestly lower after US job openings fell while the US dollar is broadly weaker.
BNZ Markets Today
The new week began with the fallout from President Trump’s announcement Friday on tariffs on the three largest trading partners of the US, under the auspices of a national emergency regarding illegal immigration and drugs entering the US. As markets opened, the USD soared and equity futures plunged, while the US Treasuries curve flattened. These moves have shown some reversal overnight after Trump agreed to delay the tariffs on Mexico by a month.
BNZ Markets Today
Financial markets were volatile into the global close amid conflicting news on timing for the implementation of tariffs on US imports. Confirmation that tariffs would be set for Canada and Mexico at 25%, China at 10%, and begin this week, saw equities retrace earlier gains. The S&P closed 0.5% lower. G10 currencies also saw large swings. US treasuries were marginally higher in yield, while European bonds rallied, after softer than expected regional inflation data.
BNZ Markets Today
US asset markets are little changed despite data showing solid economic activity in the December quarter. The S&P is marginally higher on the day while US treasury yields are unchanged. The Euro Stoxx gained more than 1% and Eurozone bond yields fell as the European Central Bank (ECB) cut its policy rate. Gold prices reached an all time high just below US$2,800 per troy ounce.
BNZ Markets Today
US markets are broadly stable in the absence of first-tier economic data as investors look ahead to the Federal Reserve’s rate decision this morning (NZT). The S&P is modestly weaker and down close to 0.3% in early afternoon trade. Stock indices in Europe advanced with the Euro Stoxx closing 0.6% higher. Global bonds are little changed, and the US dollar is marginally stronger against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities recovered from the sharp fall the previous session, which was driven by concerns that cheaper artificial intelligence models, could impact US dominance in the technology. The S&P is up 0.6% in afternoon trade with a larger rebound in the Nasdaq index. Markets in Europe also gained with the Euro Stoxx advancing 0.4%. US treasuries edged higher in yield, partially reversing the sharp falls, from the start of the week. The US dollar consolidated gains against global currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
Weak risk sentiment has dominated markets to begin the new trading week. US equity market futures fell in Asia, and saw further losses overnight, before staging a partial recovery from the lows. The losses were led by technology stocks reflecting concerns that unexpected advances by a Chinese AI company DeepSeek, could challenge the US’s technical edge in artificial intelligence. The S&P dropped close to 3% at one point with larger falls in the Nasdaq. Global bond yields declined, and defensive currencies outperformed.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets navigated the first week of Trump’s presidency unscathed, with little net change in Treasury yields and the S&P500 up 1.7% for the week, reaching a fresh record high in early trading before ending Friday down 0.3%. The main casualty was the USD, with the DXY index down 1.7% for the week, its largest weekly decline in 14-months.
BNZ Markets Today
Market movements for the day were uninspiring until President Trump spoke virtually to an audience at the World Economic Forum in Davos. His comments saw Treasury yields nudge down, a weaker USD and lower oil prices. After closing at a fresh record high yesterday, the S&P 500 shows a small gain in early afternoon trading.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been an uneventful trading session overnight, with no key economic releases and nothing new to drive the market.
The S&P500 is up 0.8%, on track to break the early-December record high, powered by a 2.3% gain in the IT sector. This followed yesterday’s “massive” announcement of President Trump unveiling a $100b AI infrastructure project that could rise to $500b, in partnership with Softbank, Oracle, OpenAI and others. However, there are already doubts about the scale of the project or whether it will get off the ground, with Elon Musk saying “they don’t actually have the money” referring to some of the partners. Gains for the S&P are narrow and most sectors show falls.
BNZ Markets Today
On day 1 of Trump’s presidency the market got a taste of things to come over the next four years, with some off-the-cuff comments during a signing of executive orders that jolted the market. When asked by a reporter about tariffs he said he was thinking in terms of 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada and “I’ll think we’ll do it on February 1st”. In the hours ahead of his inauguration his advisors were feeding reporters that tariffs would be enacted in a managed way so this comment was surprising. It isn’t clear whether Canada and Mexico can stave off tariffs by negotiation over the next week or so. One positive factor though to come on day 1 was that China doesn’t seem to be in the crossfire for tariffs immediately and Trump said he wasn’t considering an immediate universal tariff.
BNZ Markets Today
Donald Trump has just been sworn in as the 47th President. In the opening lines of his inauguration address he highlighted that he will be putting America first. He indicated his first measures as President, declaring a national emergency at the southern border with Mexico and thereby zeroing in on curbing illegal immigration. He next talked about addressing inflation to rapidly bring down costs and prices. He will declare a national energy emergency to “drill baby drill”.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities ended the week on a strong note, with the S&P500 closing up 1.0%, taking the gain for the week to 2.9%. Themes for the week were a strong start to the earnings season, led by the banking sector, benign CPI inflation data, dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller and, while Treasury yields nudged higher on Friday, the 10-year rate still fell 13bps for the week to 4.63%.
BNZ Markets Today
The biggest market moving event overnight was some dovish comments by Fed Governor Waller which triggered a fall in interest rates after an earlier lift. In an interview with CNBC, Waller said “the inflation data we got yesterday was very good…if we continue getting numbers like this, it’s reasonable to think rate cuts could happen in the first half of the year”. He added that he wouldn’t entirely rule out a cut by March and, based on the FOMC’s median estimate of the neutral policy rate, three or four cuts this year are possible, depending on incoming data.
BNZ Markets Today
Weaker than expected UK and US CPI data have supported global bond markets, driving down rates and supporting equity markets. USD weakness after the CPI report reversed course, so a lift in the NZD to 0.5650 wasn’t sustained. The yen is the strongest of the majors, supported by lower global rates and the BoJ building the case for a possible rate hike next week.
BNZ Markets Today
Global asset markets are little changed despite an unexpected slowing in US PPI data, with the market looking ahead to the more impactful CPI data, which is released this evening. Intra-day gains for the S&P after the PPI data have faded and the index has slipped into negative territory in afternoon trade. European equities closed higher with the Euro Stoxx up 0.5%. Treasury yields are marginally higher while the US dollar is weaker.
BNZ Markets Today
This is the first Markets Today for 2025. We wish all our readers a Happy New Year.
Global equities began the week with a soft tone as markets extended the moves seen in the aftermath of the strong US labour market data on Friday. S&P futures traded lower in the Asian session, and the index dropped close to 1% on the open, before retracing some of its losses. Treasury yields continued to move higher, and the US dollar remained well supported. Oil prices reached the highest level in five months following fresh US sanctions against Russia’s energy industry. Brent crude traded up towards US$81.50 per barrel.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities have recovered a little after the slump following the Fed’s policy update yesterday. The US 10-year rate has pushed higher and the curve has steepened. The USD DXY index has appreciated to a fresh two-year high, with the gain post the Fed meeting extended after a slump in the yen after a dovish BoJ update.
BNZ Markets Today
Global asset market markets were broadly stable ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The S&P was confined to a narrow range with the index consolidating just below its record high. Moves in European equity markets were also subdued with the Euro Stoxx closing 0.3% higher. The US Dollar remained well underpinned against G10 currencies and global bond yields are little changed with limited economic data or other catalysts to provide direction.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities are on the back foot, just over 24 hours ahead of the Fed’s policy announcement. The S&P500 is currently down 0.3%. Bank of America’s latest Global Fund Manager survey provides a warning sign for equities, with the cash weighting falling to just 3.9% in December and the equities indicator surging to a record high of a net 36% overweight, triggering a “sell” signal.
BNZ Markets Today
PMI data across Europe and the US showed increases for the services sector across the board, offsetting weakness in the manufacturing sector to support the composite indices. The euro area services index rose 1.9pts to 51.4, bouncing back from a weak November reading. For the UK, the services index rose 0.4pts to 51.4.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equities ended last week on a soft note with losses for major Asian indices and initial gains for US markets fading. The S&P ended the session flat and closed the week nearly 1% lower. The Hang Seng fell 2% after Chinese policy makers pledged to boost consumption, but failed to offer details on fiscal stimulus, which disappointed investors. Global bond yields moved higher, and the US dollar had a mixed performance against G10 currencies. Brent crude prices advanced to US$74.40 per barrel and extended its weekly gain to nearly 5%.
BNZ Markets Today
Movements have been modest across asset markets. The S&P500 is down 0.2% in early afternoon trading and the Nasdaq index is down 0.2% after closing above 20,000 yesterday for the first time. Deteriorating market breadth has been noted by some, with the S&P500 on track to record its ninth consecutive day of negative breadth (more stocks falling than rising), a rare feat and indicative of some underlying weakness in the market despite the headline indices that are widely quoted.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities advanced with CPI data matching expectations, which clears the way for a likely 25bp rate cut, by the Federal Reserve at the FOMC next week. The S&P gained 0.9% and the Nasdaq reached a fresh record high. Treasury yields oscillated in the period surrounding the CPI release but are little changed while the US dollar gained. The NZD fell sharply in early European trade, in line with other Asian currencies, after reports of a change in China’s currency policy but has since recovered.
BNZ Markets Today
The key market movement over the past 24 hours has been a whack to both the NZD and AUD following the RBA policy announcement yesterday afternoon. Surprising the market, the RBA made a dovish pivot, with Governor Bullock saying that the change in wording in the Statement was deliberate, following some softer data than expected and therefore “the Board is gaining some confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards target”. The previous comment of not ruling anything in or out regarding policy was removed.
BNZ Markets Today
After a quiet start to the week, with the NZD (and AUD) and drifting lower and remaining out of favour, the market was brought alive after an announcement by China’s Politburo, following its December meeting. This meeting comes ahead of the Central Economic Work Conference later this week where the leadership announces key economic targets and priorities for the year ahead.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets are in a holding pattern ahead of the key US employment report tonight, with modest changes across equities, bonds and currency markets.
The only price action of note is Bitcoin smashing through the USD100k mark and reaching a high of USD103.8k before meeting resistance, continuing its storming run since Trump was elected. Earlier this week Trump nominated a crypto-friendly candidate Paul Atkins to replace the current SEC Chair Gary Gensler, seen to be hostile on crypto. Comments made by Fed Chair Powell, that he saw bitcoin not as a rival to the USD but to gold, helped fuel price gains in Bitcoin.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities made modest gains and treasury yields fell after the US labour market report, which saw pricing firm for a 25bp Fed rate cut, later this month. The S&P edged up 0.2% to close the week 1% higher. The US dollar ended on a firm footing, particularly against growth sensitive currencies, within the G10 basket. Brent crude prices traded towards US$71 per barrel. Official data revealed China’s central bank restarted gold purchases in November after a six month pause.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equities remained well supported with the S&P advancing to a fresh record high as investors looked ahead to comments from Fed Chair Powell. Stocks looked past economic data which revealed weaker than expected activity in the services sector. Treasury yields fell and the dollar is weaker against G10 currencies. The Korean won recovered after South Korean President Yoon lifted his order to impose martial law.
BNZ Markets Today
The big news overnight was a shock move by South Korea’s president to declare martial law on domestic political grounds. This follows months of wrangling and a deadlock in parliament between the president’s minority government and the main opposition Democratic party. Lawmakers voted 190 to 0 to request the lifting of martial law. South Korea’s military said it would uphold martial law until ordered to stop by the president. Korean assets tumbled, including the Korean won plunging nearly 3% at its low before recovering after a pledge of “unlimited liquidity” to support markets.
BNZ Markets Today
As the new week began, focus immediately turned to the bubbling political crisis in France. France’s Finance Minister said that “we will not be blackmailed” in response to Marine Le Pen’s threat to topple the government as soon as this week unless her party’s demands for changes to the Budget were met.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities ended the holiday shortened session on a positive note with the S&P gaining 0.6% and reaching a new record intra-day high. Reflecting the upbeat sentiment towards equities, EPFR data revealed that investors have allocated US$141 billion into US stocks over the past four weeks, which is the largest inflow on record. Euro Stoxx closed nearly 1% higher. Global bonds rallied while the yen appreciated and ended the week as the best performing G10 currency.
BNZ Markets Today
With US markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, news headlines overnight are Europe-centric. ECB President was interviewed by the FT and she urged Europe’s political leaders to co-operate with Donald Trump over tariffs and buy more products made in the US, warning that an acrimonious trade war risks wiping out global economic growth. Lagarde said that Europe should deal with a second Trump term with a “cheque-book strategy” in which it offered “to buy certain things from the United States”, such as liquefied natural gas and defence equipment. “This is a better scenario than a pure retaliation strategy, which can lead to a tit-for-tat process where no one is really a winner”.
BNZ Markets Today
US equity markets declined set against the backdrop of economic data, which was consistent the cautious pace of easing, outlined in the November FOMC minutes yesterday. The S&P is down 0.6% in afternoon trade, but remains close to its record high, reached earlier in the week. The US dollar fell sharply, which is likely attributable to month-end rebalancing flows, although lower treasury yields were likely a factor as well.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities are marginally higher in afternoon trade while treasury yields increased as investors digested President-elect Trump’s announcement that he would impose tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China at the beginning of his term. There was limited market reaction to upbeat US consumer confidence data. European equities declined with the Euro Stoxx closing 0.6% lower.
BNZ Markets Today
The US dollar opened the week lower on the major crosses and treasury yields fell sharply in response to President-elect Trump’s selection of Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary. The nomination of Bessent, who is seen as a pragmatic pick given his deep familiarity with financial markets, is expected to prioritise economic and market stability.
BNZ Markets Today
Surprising falls in UK and Euro area PMIs against surprising strength in the US PMI drove down European yields and currencies on Friday while supporting the USD. The euro was down over 1½% to a fresh two-year low before recovering. The NZD was caught in the cross-fire and traded at a fresh low for the year before ending the week around 0.5835. US Treasuries remained in a consolidation mode while equity markets were stronger.
BNZ Markets Today
Ukraine-Russia war escalation continues, after Russia fired an intercontinental ballistic missile for the first time. Market reaction was muted, although European currencies continue to struggle. The NZD is also languishing below 0.59 and NZD/AUD dipped below 0.90. US Treasuries continue to consolidate. There were mixed US second-tier data releases overnight.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow remains light. US equities are weaker for the first day this week, ahead of Nvidia’s earnings release. US Treasury yields pared an earlier lift, after reports that Ukraine fired British-made missiles into Russia, leaving the 10-year rate little changed for the day. The USD is broadly stronger, seeing the NZD back below 0.59.
BNZ Markets Today
There has been some market volatility overnight, on geopolitical news, following Russia’s publication of an updated nuclear arms doctrine and Ukraine firing long-range missiles into Russia. This caused a risk-off move, but markets quickly settled, and the net impact has been small. US equities are slightly stronger, US Treasury yields are slightly lower and commodity currencies have outperformed. The NZD has pushed up just over 0.59.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been a quiet start to the week with little newsflow. US equities have bounced back after last week’s losses. US Treasuries are little changed, with the 10-year note finding support just under 4.5%. For a change, the USD is broadly weaker, falling against all majors apart from the yen. The NZD hit a fresh 2024 low below 0.5840 before recovering to 0.5885.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities ended the week on a soft note with the S&P closing 1.3% lower. The index has retraced close to half of the 5% gains made following the election. Comments by US Federal Reserve Chair Powell that there is no need to hurry to cut rates given the strong economy, also weighed on sentiment, with the market reducing the chance of a 25bp cut at the December FOMC. An initial sell-off in US treasuries after the release of retail sales reversed, and the dollar index ended unchanged, with divergent performance across major currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
Looking at market movements, the easiest story to tell is one of exhaustion of the post-election Trump trades. US equities are down modestly, and US Treasury yields have fallen, despite stronger than expected US economic data. The USD reached a fresh high before turning down. The NZD found support at 0.5850 and has recovered a little to 0.5875.
BNZ Markets Today
After the selloff in the previous session, front end US treasuries recovered following CPI data that matched expectations and raised expectations of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve. US equity markets are little changed with major indices continuing to consolidate after the strong post-election rally. The US dollar extended its recent gains against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
The post-election surge in US equities has lost some momentum, as major indices consolidate near record highs, and investors look ahead to key US inflation data this evening. The S&P is marginally lower in afternoon trading. There were larger falls in European stocks with Euro Stoxx closing more than 2% lower. Treasury yields have moved sharply higher supporting the US dollar index which extended its uptrend. OPEC cut its oil demand forecasts for the fourth consecutive month with weak demand noted in China. Brent crude prices were little changed near US$72 per barrel.
BNZ Markets Today
Equity markets remained well supported to start the week. Post-election rotations continued with the economically sensitive Russell 2000 index of small-cap firms hitting the highest level since 2021. The S&P has advanced 0.2% by early afternoon in the absence of first-tier economic data or other catalysts. European equities made solid gains with the Euro Stoxx closing 1.2% higher.
BNZ Markets Today
The euphoria of Trump’s decisive win continued to reverberate through US equity markets as they notched up fresh record highs. For the same reason, the market continued to pare Fed rate cut expectations, driving a flatter US Treasuries curve, with higher short-term rates and a small fall in the 10-year rate. The USD was broadly stronger, with the NZD and AUD underperforming as China’s policy package was focused on a local government debt swap rather than stimulating consumer spending. The NZD closed the week near where it started, just under 0.5970.
BNZ Markets Today
Ahead of the Fed’s policy announcement soon after we go to print, there has been some reversal of the Trump trade in currency and bond markets, while US equities have continued to power ahead. The USD is broadly weaker, seeing the NZD push up through 0.60. US Treasury yields are lower, and the curve is flatter. The BoE delivered a 25bps rate cut, as expected, with guidance of further gradual rate cuts.