BNZ Markets Today
US equities have recovered a little after the slump following the Fed’s policy update yesterday. The US 10-year rate has pushed higher and the curve has steepened. The USD DXY index has appreciated to a fresh two-year high, with the gain post the Fed meeting extended after a slump in the yen after a dovish BoJ update.
BNZ Markets Today
Global asset market markets were broadly stable ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The S&P was confined to a narrow range with the index consolidating just below its record high. Moves in European equity markets were also subdued with the Euro Stoxx closing 0.3% higher. The US Dollar remained well underpinned against G10 currencies and global bond yields are little changed with limited economic data or other catalysts to provide direction.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities are on the back foot, just over 24 hours ahead of the Fed’s policy announcement. The S&P500 is currently down 0.3%. Bank of America’s latest Global Fund Manager survey provides a warning sign for equities, with the cash weighting falling to just 3.9% in December and the equities indicator surging to a record high of a net 36% overweight, triggering a “sell” signal.
BNZ Markets Today
PMI data across Europe and the US showed increases for the services sector across the board, offsetting weakness in the manufacturing sector to support the composite indices. The euro area services index rose 1.9pts to 51.4, bouncing back from a weak November reading. For the UK, the services index rose 0.4pts to 51.4.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equities ended last week on a soft note with losses for major Asian indices and initial gains for US markets fading. The S&P ended the session flat and closed the week nearly 1% lower. The Hang Seng fell 2% after Chinese policy makers pledged to boost consumption, but failed to offer details on fiscal stimulus, which disappointed investors. Global bond yields moved higher, and the US dollar had a mixed performance against G10 currencies. Brent crude prices advanced to US$74.40 per barrel and extended its weekly gain to nearly 5%.
BNZ Markets Today
Movements have been modest across asset markets. The S&P500 is down 0.2% in early afternoon trading and the Nasdaq index is down 0.2% after closing above 20,000 yesterday for the first time. Deteriorating market breadth has been noted by some, with the S&P500 on track to record its ninth consecutive day of negative breadth (more stocks falling than rising), a rare feat and indicative of some underlying weakness in the market despite the headline indices that are widely quoted.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities advanced with CPI data matching expectations, which clears the way for a likely 25bp rate cut, by the Federal Reserve at the FOMC next week. The S&P gained 0.9% and the Nasdaq reached a fresh record high. Treasury yields oscillated in the period surrounding the CPI release but are little changed while the US dollar gained. The NZD fell sharply in early European trade, in line with other Asian currencies, after reports of a change in China’s currency policy but has since recovered.
BNZ Markets Today
The key market movement over the past 24 hours has been a whack to both the NZD and AUD following the RBA policy announcement yesterday afternoon. Surprising the market, the RBA made a dovish pivot, with Governor Bullock saying that the change in wording in the Statement was deliberate, following some softer data than expected and therefore “the Board is gaining some confidence that inflation is moving sustainably towards target”. The previous comment of not ruling anything in or out regarding policy was removed.
BNZ Markets Today
After a quiet start to the week, with the NZD (and AUD) and drifting lower and remaining out of favour, the market was brought alive after an announcement by China’s Politburo, following its December meeting. This meeting comes ahead of the Central Economic Work Conference later this week where the leadership announces key economic targets and priorities for the year ahead.
BNZ Markets Today
Markets are in a holding pattern ahead of the key US employment report tonight, with modest changes across equities, bonds and currency markets.
The only price action of note is Bitcoin smashing through the USD100k mark and reaching a high of USD103.8k before meeting resistance, continuing its storming run since Trump was elected. Earlier this week Trump nominated a crypto-friendly candidate Paul Atkins to replace the current SEC Chair Gary Gensler, seen to be hostile on crypto. Comments made by Fed Chair Powell, that he saw bitcoin not as a rival to the USD but to gold, helped fuel price gains in Bitcoin.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities made modest gains and treasury yields fell after the US labour market report, which saw pricing firm for a 25bp Fed rate cut, later this month. The S&P edged up 0.2% to close the week 1% higher. The US dollar ended on a firm footing, particularly against growth sensitive currencies, within the G10 basket. Brent crude prices traded towards US$71 per barrel. Official data revealed China’s central bank restarted gold purchases in November after a six month pause.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equities remained well supported with the S&P advancing to a fresh record high as investors looked ahead to comments from Fed Chair Powell. Stocks looked past economic data which revealed weaker than expected activity in the services sector. Treasury yields fell and the dollar is weaker against G10 currencies. The Korean won recovered after South Korean President Yoon lifted his order to impose martial law.
BNZ Markets Today
The big news overnight was a shock move by South Korea’s president to declare martial law on domestic political grounds. This follows months of wrangling and a deadlock in parliament between the president’s minority government and the main opposition Democratic party. Lawmakers voted 190 to 0 to request the lifting of martial law. South Korea’s military said it would uphold martial law until ordered to stop by the president. Korean assets tumbled, including the Korean won plunging nearly 3% at its low before recovering after a pledge of “unlimited liquidity” to support markets.
BNZ Markets Today
As the new week began, focus immediately turned to the bubbling political crisis in France. France’s Finance Minister said that “we will not be blackmailed” in response to Marine Le Pen’s threat to topple the government as soon as this week unless her party’s demands for changes to the Budget were met.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities ended the holiday shortened session on a positive note with the S&P gaining 0.6% and reaching a new record intra-day high. Reflecting the upbeat sentiment towards equities, EPFR data revealed that investors have allocated US$141 billion into US stocks over the past four weeks, which is the largest inflow on record. Euro Stoxx closed nearly 1% higher. Global bonds rallied while the yen appreciated and ended the week as the best performing G10 currency.
BNZ Markets Today
With US markets closed for the Thanksgiving holiday, news headlines overnight are Europe-centric. ECB President was interviewed by the FT and she urged Europe’s political leaders to co-operate with Donald Trump over tariffs and buy more products made in the US, warning that an acrimonious trade war risks wiping out global economic growth. Lagarde said that Europe should deal with a second Trump term with a “cheque-book strategy” in which it offered “to buy certain things from the United States”, such as liquefied natural gas and defence equipment. “This is a better scenario than a pure retaliation strategy, which can lead to a tit-for-tat process where no one is really a winner”.
BNZ Markets Today
US equity markets declined set against the backdrop of economic data, which was consistent the cautious pace of easing, outlined in the November FOMC minutes yesterday. The S&P is down 0.6% in afternoon trade, but remains close to its record high, reached earlier in the week. The US dollar fell sharply, which is likely attributable to month-end rebalancing flows, although lower treasury yields were likely a factor as well.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities are marginally higher in afternoon trade while treasury yields increased as investors digested President-elect Trump’s announcement that he would impose tariffs on Mexico, Canada and China at the beginning of his term. There was limited market reaction to upbeat US consumer confidence data. European equities declined with the Euro Stoxx closing 0.6% lower.
BNZ Markets Today
The US dollar opened the week lower on the major crosses and treasury yields fell sharply in response to President-elect Trump’s selection of Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary. The nomination of Bessent, who is seen as a pragmatic pick given his deep familiarity with financial markets, is expected to prioritise economic and market stability.
BNZ Markets Today
Surprising falls in UK and Euro area PMIs against surprising strength in the US PMI drove down European yields and currencies on Friday while supporting the USD. The euro was down over 1½% to a fresh two-year low before recovering. The NZD was caught in the cross-fire and traded at a fresh low for the year before ending the week around 0.5835. US Treasuries remained in a consolidation mode while equity markets were stronger.
BNZ Markets Today
Ukraine-Russia war escalation continues, after Russia fired an intercontinental ballistic missile for the first time. Market reaction was muted, although European currencies continue to struggle. The NZD is also languishing below 0.59 and NZD/AUD dipped below 0.90. US Treasuries continue to consolidate. There were mixed US second-tier data releases overnight.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow remains light. US equities are weaker for the first day this week, ahead of Nvidia’s earnings release. US Treasury yields pared an earlier lift, after reports that Ukraine fired British-made missiles into Russia, leaving the 10-year rate little changed for the day. The USD is broadly stronger, seeing the NZD back below 0.59.
BNZ Markets Today
There has been some market volatility overnight, on geopolitical news, following Russia’s publication of an updated nuclear arms doctrine and Ukraine firing long-range missiles into Russia. This caused a risk-off move, but markets quickly settled, and the net impact has been small. US equities are slightly stronger, US Treasury yields are slightly lower and commodity currencies have outperformed. The NZD has pushed up just over 0.59.
BNZ Markets Today
It has been a quiet start to the week with little newsflow. US equities have bounced back after last week’s losses. US Treasuries are little changed, with the 10-year note finding support just under 4.5%. For a change, the USD is broadly weaker, falling against all majors apart from the yen. The NZD hit a fresh 2024 low below 0.5840 before recovering to 0.5885.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities ended the week on a soft note with the S&P closing 1.3% lower. The index has retraced close to half of the 5% gains made following the election. Comments by US Federal Reserve Chair Powell that there is no need to hurry to cut rates given the strong economy, also weighed on sentiment, with the market reducing the chance of a 25bp cut at the December FOMC. An initial sell-off in US treasuries after the release of retail sales reversed, and the dollar index ended unchanged, with divergent performance across major currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
Looking at market movements, the easiest story to tell is one of exhaustion of the post-election Trump trades. US equities are down modestly, and US Treasury yields have fallen, despite stronger than expected US economic data. The USD reached a fresh high before turning down. The NZD found support at 0.5850 and has recovered a little to 0.5875.
BNZ Markets Today
After the selloff in the previous session, front end US treasuries recovered following CPI data that matched expectations and raised expectations of a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve. US equity markets are little changed with major indices continuing to consolidate after the strong post-election rally. The US dollar extended its recent gains against G10 currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
The post-election surge in US equities has lost some momentum, as major indices consolidate near record highs, and investors look ahead to key US inflation data this evening. The S&P is marginally lower in afternoon trading. There were larger falls in European stocks with Euro Stoxx closing more than 2% lower. Treasury yields have moved sharply higher supporting the US dollar index which extended its uptrend. OPEC cut its oil demand forecasts for the fourth consecutive month with weak demand noted in China. Brent crude prices were little changed near US$72 per barrel.
BNZ Markets Today
Equity markets remained well supported to start the week. Post-election rotations continued with the economically sensitive Russell 2000 index of small-cap firms hitting the highest level since 2021. The S&P has advanced 0.2% by early afternoon in the absence of first-tier economic data or other catalysts. European equities made solid gains with the Euro Stoxx closing 1.2% higher.
BNZ Markets Today
The euphoria of Trump’s decisive win continued to reverberate through US equity markets as they notched up fresh record highs. For the same reason, the market continued to pare Fed rate cut expectations, driving a flatter US Treasuries curve, with higher short-term rates and a small fall in the 10-year rate. The USD was broadly stronger, with the NZD and AUD underperforming as China’s policy package was focused on a local government debt swap rather than stimulating consumer spending. The NZD closed the week near where it started, just under 0.5970.
BNZ Markets Today
Ahead of the Fed’s policy announcement soon after we go to print, there has been some reversal of the Trump trade in currency and bond markets, while US equities have continued to power ahead. The USD is broadly weaker, seeing the NZD push up through 0.60. US Treasury yields are lower, and the curve is flatter. The BoE delivered a 25bps rate cut, as expected, with guidance of further gradual rate cuts.
BNZ Markets Today
In the wake of a decisive victory for Trump and the Republican party at the US elections, market movements have been significant. US equities are up over 2% to a fresh record high, US Treasury yields are higher led by the long end with the 30-year rate up 20bps, and the USD is broadly stronger. While the NZD is down just over 1%, it has outperformed, with the drag from EM currencies including the yuan offset by the higher risk appetite backdrop.
BNZ Markets Today
As Americans head to the polls, market pricing has been consistent with “risk-on”, with stronger US equities, higher rates and a broadly weaker USD. The NZD and AUD have outperformed, more so the latter, following an RBA update that gave a reality check of inflation still being too high to warrant following the path of other central banks in easing monetary policy. The NZD is hovering around 0.60.
BNZ Markets Today
The week has kicked off with a reversal of the Trump trade as investors pared bets on him winning the presidential race. The USD is broadly lower and US rates are lower across the curve led by the long end. The NZD managed to temporarily rise above 0.60, but has settled at 0.5980 this morning, up 0.3% from last week’s close. Oil prices are up on OPEC+’s delay to increase supply and talk of Iran aggressively retaliating against Israel.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equity markets began the new month on a positive note despite weaker than expect US labour market data. The S&P closed 0.4% higher while stocks in Europe also advanced as investors look ahead to the FOMC and US election this week. Global bond yields whipsawed but ultimately ended higher after dropping immediately following the data. The US dollar was generally stronger against G10 currencies. After markets were closed, OPEC+ announced it plans to delay its December output hike by one month.
BNZ Markets Today
There has been plenty of newsflow to digest. US equities are ending the month on a weak note, reflecting weaker forward guidance by companies rather than macro forces. The reaction to the UK Budget continues to reverberate, with higher UK rates and a weaker GBP. The BoJ’s update, leaving the door open for a possible December rate hike, supported the yen. The NZD continues to languish and sits at 0.5960.
BNZ Markets Today
US equity markets struggled to gain traction, as investors remained focused on company earnings including technology companies Microsoft and Meta and digested robust US GDP data. The S&P is modestly higher in afternoon trading while European stocks declined despite Euro-area growth beating expectations. The Euro Stoxx index closed 1.2% lower. US treasuries moved modestly higher in yield and the US dollar index declined.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities are little changed in afternoon trade, amid mixed economic data, and ahead of key results from large US technology firms. Equities in Europe made a modest pullback with the Euro Stoxx closing 0.4% lower. Global bonds continued to move higher in yield and the US dollar index is marginally stronger. Brent crude prices stabilised near US$71 per barrel, following the recent sharp sell-off related to a reduction in the geopolitical risk premium, after Israel avoided striking Iranian oil facilities.
BNZ Markets Today
Since locals left for the long weekend, key market movements have been a plunge in oil prices, with Israel’s limited attack against Iran over, a weaker JPY following Japan’s Lower House elections which resulted in the ruling coalition losing its majority, and the Trump trade extending, with higher US Treasury yields, higher US equities and a broadly stronger USD. The NZD fell to a fresh multi-week low yesterday and continues to languish below 0.60.
BNZ Markets Today
Market movements have been modest, with US equities currently showing a small gain, while global rates are lower after their recent steady rise. Global PMI data were mostly in line with expectations, with small changes in October. Political polls continue to show rising support for Trump. The NZD shows little net movement overnight, back to 0.6020, after a minor rally to just over 0.6030.
BNZ Markets Today
The recent softer tone for global equities continued overnight, with the S&P down 0.9% in afternoon trade, and setting up for the third consecutive day of declines. The lacklustre performance of equities comes as investors have pared back bets on rapid policy easing, though the S&P is only ~1.5% below its all-time high, reached earlier in the month. European equity indices also closed lower. Global bond markets were mixed while the US dollar extended its recent gains. Spot gold prices pulled back from a record high, set in the Asian session, just below US$2760.
BNZ Markets Today
Global asset markets are little changed in the absence of first-tier economic data or other catalysts. US equity markets are marginally lower in afternoon trade with investors focused on corporate earnings. If the S&P closes lower, it will be the first back-to-back decline in more than a month. European equities pared earlier declines but still edged lower at the close. Global bond yields moved higher, and the US dollar is modestly stronger against developed market currencies. Oil prices increased close to 2%, with Brent Crude trading above $76 per barrel.
BNZ Markets Today
Global rates are broadly higher without a satisfactory explanation. US Treasury yields are up 7-9bps across the curve with some even larger moves in many European countries. Higher rates have driven weaker equity markets, with a modest fall in US equities in early afternoon trading. The USD is broadly stronger, with 0.6-0.7% falls for the NZD and AUD from last week’s close, seeing the NZD down at 0.6030.
BNZ Markets Today
Last week ended on a quiet note, but that didn’t stop US equities extending their record-breaking run. There were only small moves in US Treasury yields and currency movements were modest. The NZD traded a tight range and closed the week around 0.6070.
BNZ Markets Today
Stronger than expected US retail sales data saw the market pare the scope for easier Fed policy and drove higher US Treasury yields. The ECB cut rates and the market added to bets that the ECB would step up the pace of easing going forward against the backdrop of lower inflation and downside risks to growth. Currency moves have been modest but JPY and EUR underperformed. The AUD was supported after a strong labour market report and the NZD has range-traded around 0.6060.
BNZ Markets Today
Newsflow has been light, but US equities are currently in positive territory after yesterday’s weakness. Much weaker than expected UK CPI data pushed down UK rates, which spilled over into lower European rates and Treasuries. The USD is broadly stronger as the Trump trade continues. The NZD regained some poise after a dip following soft CPI data that saw the market bring forward NZ rate cuts. While the NZD is languishing around 0.6060, NZD/AUD and NZD/GBP crosses are higher.
BNZ Markets Today
The S&P retraced from its all-time high following news that US officials were discussing capping exports of advanced AI chips. Technology stocks also weighed on European markets. Chinese equities declined as investors wait for more details of a stimulus package first announced by Beijing in September. Officials from China’s housing ministry, finance ministry and the Peoples Bank of China will hold a briefing tomorrow to outline measures to support the property sector and bolster growth. Global bond yields declined, and the US dollar is little changed.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities continue their record-breaking run on the US public holiday, with the cash treasuries market closed. Market reaction to the underwhelming weekend policy announcement by China’s MoF was well contained. The USD is broadly stronger, and the NZD has settled just below 0.61, with only small movements on the crosses.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equity markets were well supported into the weekly close. The S&P closed above 5800 at another record high as banking stocks gained after reporting solid earnings. The KBW Bank Index hit the highest level since April 2022, on the back of better-than-expected results from JPMorgan and Wells Fargo. Both banks provided a positive commentary on the economy which supported the soft landing narrative. Global bond markets ended modestly higher in yield and the US dollar was stable against major currencies.
BNZ Markets Today
US equity markets are little changed with the S&P consolidating near record highs. There was limited lasting impact from higher than expected US CPI data. Global bond yields were little changed overall, and major currencies were mixed against the US dollar. Oil prices gained with Brent crude trading back to US$79 per barrel. Chinese equities remain volatile, and posted strong gains yesterday, as investors look ahead to the weekend briefing on fiscal policy by officials from the Ministry of Finance.
BNZ Markets Today
US equity markets remained well underpinned ahead of key inflation data with the S&P increasing 0.5% to a fresh record high. European equities also gained with the Euro Stoxx closing 0.7% higher. There was limited economic data to provide direction and Fed officials continued with the recent narrative of a gradual easing cycle. Treasury yields moved higher supporting the US dollar. The NZD remained heavy after the sharp fall following the RBNZ rate decision yesterday. Brent crude extended lower towards US$76 per barrel.
BNZ Markets Today
US equities have rebounded from the previous session with the S&P up 0.8% in afternoon trade, despite falls in Asia and Europe, after Chinese officials held off announcing more stimulus. The Euro Stoxx closed 0.4% lower. Global bond markets are little changed in the absence of first-tier economic data to provide direction. The US dollar was generally stable, and oil prices retraced from recent highs. Brent crude fell toward US$77 per barrel having traded above US$81 earlier this week.
BNZ Markets Today
Global bond yields continued to move higher with 10-year US treasuries trading back above 4%. This is the highest level since August, as investors continued to recalibrate the outlook for monetary policy, after the upside surprise to labour market data last week. US equities are marginally lower in afternoon trade while the Euro Stoxx index edged higher despite very weak German factory orders. The US dollar was mixed, and the NZD extended its recent fall.
BNZ Markets Today
Stronger than expected US labour market data contributed to large moves across financial markets into the end of last week. US treasuries led global bond yields higher as investors recalibrated expectations for easing by the Federal Reserve. The US dollar made broad based gains which saw NZD/USD trade below 0.6150. The prospect of a soft landing for the US economy outweighed concerns about escalating tensions in the Middle East and supported equity markets with the S&P advancing close to 1%. Brent crude prices reached US$79 per barrel before pulling back but are still ~9% higher over last week.
BNZ Markets Today
The market continues to trade cautiously, as it awaits Israel’s expected retaliation against Iran and key US employment data tonight. Oil prices are much higher on the fear on Iran’s oil facilities being a target. The combination of higher oil prices and a strong US ISM services survey has driven US Treasury yields higher. The USD is broadly stronger and GBP is the weakest of the majors, following dovish comments by BoE Governor Bailey.
BNZ Markets Today
Following yesterday’s volatile session, after Iran’s missile attack on Israel, markets are calmer as they await the next move. US equities are currently flat and US Treasury yields have pushed higher, a combination of some mean revision and a stronger than expected ADP payrolls figure. The yen is much weaker after dovish comments by Japan’s new PM and the BoJ Governor. The NZD has also underperformed overnight, probing lows near 0.6260.
BNZ Markets Today
Geopolitical factors have outweighed economic data releases in their market impact overnight. Iran launched a missile attack against Israel, resulting in a typical market response, with much higher oil prices, lower equities and lower rates. Safe haven currencies have outperformed. The NZD is down nearly 1½% from this time yesterday, including a 0.6% fall overnight, with underperformance following a soft QSBO, which supports the case for a more front-loaded RBNZ rate cut cycle.
BNZ Markets Today
China’s equity market continued to surge in the aftermath of last week’s policy stimulus announcement. The China trade has helped drive the NZD and AUD up to fresh highs for the year. Following last week’s soft euro area PMI data and sub 2% readings for regional inflation measures, ECB President gave a nod to another 25bps rate cut for the October meeting. A stronger ANZ business survey drove a turnaround in domestic rates yesterday and all eyes will be on the QSBO today.
BNZ Markets Today
Weaker CPI figures for France and Spain, following weak euro area PMI data earlier in the week, drove the market to price in higher odds of the ECB cutting rates at its next meeting. US PCE inflation metrics were also market-friendly, and added to the support seen for US Treasuries, with lower rates on Friday in the order of 5-7bps. The yen strengthened after an LDP candidate sympathetic to the BoJ’s tightening cycle got the nod to become the next PM. The NZD traded at a fresh high for the year in the afterglow of China’s smorgasbord of policy stimulus measures, while NZD/JPY fell over 1½% towards 90.
BNZ Markets Today
A pledge by China to provide further stimulus to promote growth has supported risk appetite and Asia-Pacific currencies. The NZD is up 1%, driving back up through 0.63. US and European equities have increased to fresh record highs. Stronger US economic data drove higher US Treasury yields, led by the short end, resulting in the curve flattening, a reversal of the pressure seen over the past week or so. Oil prices fell 3% after a report that Saudi Arabia is looking to raise production and accept lower oil prices.
BNZ Markets Today
Global equity markets are little changed in the absence of first-tier economic data or other catalysts. The S&P is marginally lower in afternoon trade while stocks in Europe also closed modestly lower. Global bond yields moved higher, and the US dollar bounced strongly off the recent lows. NZD/USD, which traded above 0.6350 yesterday, has fallen back below 0.6270.