Dollar dances to tune of Trump’s triumph
• USD broadly stronger in November, following Trump’s victory and signs of a stronger for longer US economy
• NZD falls to a fresh 2024 low below 0.58 before finding support; ends down less than 1% for the month
• EUR underperforms, JPY the strongest of the majors; global equities up strongly to a record high; global rates lower
NZD slumps in October
• Stronger than expected US economic data and rising odds of a Trump victory drove higher US rates and a higher USD
• The NZD was the worst performing of the majors, down nearly 6%
• Lower NZ-global rate spreads added to NZD downside pressure, contributing to weaker cross rates
NZD rises to a fresh 2024 high in September
• The Fed opted to kick-start its easing cycle with a 50bps cut; China ramped up policy stimulus to drive an economic recovery
• High risk appetite and lower US rates drove a broadly weaker USD; most FX majors made fresh 2024 highs against the USD
• Rates curves steepened as the global easing cycle gained traction; global equities pushed up to a fresh record high