November a net nothingburger
• Markets were well contained in November, with little net change across global equities, rates and currencies
• The NZD hit fresh lows during the month, before recovering after a more hawkish RBNZ policy update than widely expected
• Higher conviction on the end of easing cycles saw both NZ and Australian rates higher, against the global trend
Mixed NZD performance in October
• A dovish 50bp cut by the RBNZ caused only temporary NZD weakness in October
• The USD was broadly stronger, and NZD/USD fell just over 1%; the NZD recovered from a mid-month malaise and ended mixed on the key crosses
• JPY underperformed on political uncertainty and the BoJ remaining on the sidelines; NZD/JPY rose 3%
Roasted Kiwi
• For a second consecutive month, the NZD was a clear underperformer, struggling after a poor Q2 GDP outturn
• By month-end, the market had priced in the OCR falling just below 2.25%, implying at least another 75bps of cuts
• NZD/USD fell 1.7%, with the NZD showing even larger falls on NZD/AUD and NZD/EUR crosses, to multi-year lows