Economy Watch

Labour market still deteriorating

Matt Brunt -

Job ads are down 26.2% on a year ago, after a decline of 1.4% m/m in October. This is consistent with ongoing loosening in the labour market. Last week, the Treasury noted that “recent second-tier data has been suggestive of a turning point in the economy.” That might well be true, and employment intentions have improved in some recent business surveys, but we continue to expect the labour market to lag the broader economic recovery. October’s job ads support that view.

Stuck in a rut

Doug Steel -

New Zealand’s services sector result for October remained in contraction, according to the BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI).

The PSI for October was 46.0 (A PSI reading above 50.0 indicates that the service sector is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining). This was up 0.3 points from September, but activity has varied by only 0.7 points over the last four months, which has kept the sector within a tight band of contractionary results. The October result is also still well below the average of 53.1 over the history of the survey.

BusinessNZ's CEO, Katherine Rich said that the October result showed mixed results when broken down by sub-index values. While the New Orders/Business Index (48.1) was at its highest level since February 2024, the Activity/Sales Index (44.3) lost some momentum during October. The Employment Index (46.4) recovered some of its fall after a sizeable drop in September.

The proportion of negative comments for October stood at 59.1%, which was up from September at 58.5%, but down on 60.8% in August and 67.0% in both July and June. The cost of living and the general economic climate continued to dominate comments from respondents.

BNZ's Senior Economist Doug Steel said that "although it is contracting at a much slower pace than it was in June (when the PSI was 41.1), the PSI has been hovering between 45 and 46 over the last four months. The activity outlook for the sector has improved in recent business surveys, but the here and now remains extremely challenging”.

Lost momentum

Doug Steel -

New Zealand’s manufacturing sector showed contraction at a faster rate during October, according to the latest BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI).

The seasonally adjusted PMI for October was 45.8 (a PMI reading above 50.0 indicates that manufacturing is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining). This was down from 47.0 in September, and the lowest level of activity since July 2024. The sector has now been in contraction for 20 consecutive months.

BusinessNZ’s Director, Advocacy Catherine Beard said that despite some momentum over the previous few months that saw the results for the sector getting progressively closer to the no change mark of 50.0, October's result halted that.

“The key sub-index result for Production (44.5) fell 3.4 points from September, while both Employment (45.8) and Deliveries (44.6) dropped one point. In contrast, Finished Stocks (47.4) lifted 0.7 points, while New Orders (49.0) rose 1.1 points and at its highest level since May 2023.

The proportion of negative comments from respondents stood at 53.5% in October. This was down from 63.5% in September, 64.2% in August, 71.1% in July and 76.3% in June. Negative comments typically focused on the general economic downturn.

BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel said that “despite lower interest rates, the manufacturing sector continues to face significant headwinds. Recent business surveys have shown a sharp contrast between improved expectations for activity and weak current conditions”.

Q4 CPI Forecast Stays Put

Doug Steel -

Today’s Selected Prices data for October were generally close to our expectations. There were no major surprises, although the net of all the monthly price indicators put together was marginally on the softer side.

It is not enough to change the rounding on our estimate for Q4 CPI annual inflation which stays a 2.3%, but gives a whiff of downside risk to it. The RBNZ forecast 2.3% y/y for Q4 CPI in its August MPS. So, we see nothing here to materially to alter the RBNZ’s view of the world.

Labour market deterioration gains pace

Stephen Toplis -

Those looking for a sharp jump in unemployment to justify the RBNZ cutting its cash rate by 75 basis points at its November 27 MPS will be sorely disappointed with the news today that the unemployment rate rose less than expected to 4.8% in September from 4.6% in June. The RBNZ was expecting a 5.0% headline reading.

Nonetheless, while the unemployment rate may have hinted at a relatively resilient labour market, not much else did.

Growth Expected Next Year

Stephen Toplis -

Businesses remain very upbeat about the outlook over the coming year, according to this afternoon’s October ANZ business survey. Indeed, business confidence hit its highest level since March 2014.

One can’t help but feel a chunk of this reflects an exceptionally weak starting position in a ‘things will surely get better than now’ kind of way. Regardless, the positivity is a supporting signal for some pickup in growth next year.

September Still Struggling

Matt Brunt -

Job ads declined a further 0.5% m/m in September as the labour market continues to deteriorate. They are down 29.1% on a year earlier and weakness remains broad-based across the economy. Their general trend has been in decline since July 2022, and, while falling interest rates will be supportive, we expect the labour market to lag the broader economic recovery.

Inflation beaten into submission

Stephen Toplis -

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand should be overjoyed with today’s inflation outturn. One can never claim that inflation is dead and buried but, for the time being, it’s as near as dammit.
Consumer prices rose just 0.6% in the September quarter, delivering an annual increase of 2.2%. This is the first time annual inflation has been within the Bank’s target band since March 2021. Moreover, it’s not just inside the band but sits close enough to the 2.0% midpoint to be immaterially different.

Same same

Doug Steel -

September's result for New Zealand’s services sector remained the same as August, although still firmly in contraction mode, according to the BNZ –BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI).

The PSI for September was 45.7 (A PSI reading above 50.0 indicates that the service sector is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining). This was the same as August, and shows the results in a tight band for the last three months. However, this is still well below the average of 53.1 over the history of the survey.

BusinessNZ's CEO, Katherine Rich said that after seven consecutive months in contraction, the sector seems to be stuck in a rut and struggling to get out of contraction. Looking at the key sub-index values for September, it is encouraging to see the Activity/Sales Index (45.6) continue to improve, although the New Orders/Business Index (46.7) stagnated and the Employment Index (45.7) reversed back to its lowest result since February 2022.

On a brighter note, the proportion of negative comments for September stood at 58.5%, compared with 60.8% in August and 67.0% in both July and June. A significant proportion of respondents noted the overall economy as a key negative influence on activity levels.

BNZ's Senior Economist Doug Steel said that "movements in the PSI sub-indices were mixed in September, but all of them have been below 50 for seven consecutive months. While falling interest rates will be supportive in time, the sector continues to face significant headwinds at present”.

Long and slow road

Doug Steel -

New Zealand’s manufacturing sector continued to show higher levels of activity for September, although remained in contraction, according to the latest BNZ – BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI).

The seasonally adjusted PMI for September was 46.9 (a PMI reading above 50.0 indicates that manufacturing is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining). This was up from 46.1 in August, and the third consecutive month showing a higher level of activity compared with the previous month. However, the sector remains firmly in contraction that now extents to 19 consecutive months, and well below the average of 52.6 since the survey began.

BusinessNZ’s Director, Advocacy Catherine Beard said that the good news was that the PMI is now at its highest result since April. The bad news though was that it appears to be a long and slow road to get the sector back into positive territory.

“The key sub-index results for Production (48.0) and New Orders (47.8) were the highest since April 2024 and November 2023 respectively, while Finished Stocks (46.6) also nudged up from the previous month. However, both Employment (46.6) and Deliveries (45.6) were slightly down from August".

The proportion of negative comments from respondents stood at 63.5% in September, which was down from 64.2% in August, 71.1% in July and 76.3% in June. Negative comments typically focused most heavily on a lack of orders and sales.

BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel said that “while all sub-indices remain well below their historical average, four of the five series have moved closer to breakeven in the last three months since June”.

RBNZ accelerates easing cycle

Stephen Toplis -

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand today slashed its cash rate by 50 basis points to 4.75%. We think this is exactly the right thing to do and stick with our view that there is much more to come. As we have said before, the RBNZ will not relax until monetary conditions are no longer restraining the economy. We are still some way from this.

RBNZ to accelerate rate cuts

Stephen Toplis -

We have been increasingly pointing to the fact that October’s Monetary Policy Review could be a line ball call between a 50 basis point cut and a 25. Not cutting at all has never entered our minds. And a line ball call it is. We’d hoped that the ANZ Business Opinion Survey and today’s QSBO would deliver the same message, and in so doing settle the argument. But they haven’t, with the ANZ survey delivering a hawkish message and the QSBO a starkly dovish tilt.

Business survey questions RBNZ acceleration

Stephen Toplis -

If you were looking for a reason why the RBNZ should cut rates 50 basis points at its October meeting, this wasn’t it.

The September ANZ Survey of Business Opinion was unequivocally strong.

A net 45% of businesses now expect their activity to increase over the next 12 months. On a seasonally adjusted basis this was the strongest reading since August 2017 and is consistent with GDP growth approaching 4.0%.

Comparing Across the Ditch

Matt Brunt -

While Australia’s economy faces headwinds, they pale in comparison to New Zealand’s. In Q2, NZ annual GDP contracted 0.5%, much weaker than annual growth of 1.0% across the ditch. While NZ is in the midst of a rolling recession, Australia’s economy has remained relatively more resilient. But, given the extent of the downturn, there is at least a lower hurdle rate for NZ to achieve positive growth as we head into 2025.

Return to Trend-Decline

Matt Brunt -

Job ads in August are down 28.2% on a year earlier, and excluding Covid, are at their lowest level since 2013. They fell 1.3% in August, unwinding some of their 3.5% lift in July. The August outturn continues the general downwards trend of the last two years.

External deficit reduction stalls

Doug Steel -

The current account deficit stood at the equivalent of 6.7% of GDP in the year to June 2024. This is of a size that is likely to keep the external accounts on rating agency radars.
Today’s result was a larger annual deficit than the market (6.5%) or we (6.3%) expected, although a touch smaller than the 6.9% seasonally adjusted figure the RBNZ projected in its August MPS. For us, the known revisions to exports of services were offset by other factors and revisions.

Slow Crawl

Doug Steel -

Activity in New Zealand’s services sector inched its way higher during August, although still firmly in contraction territory, according to the BNZ –BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index (PSI).

The PSI for August was 45.5 (A PSI reading above 50.0 indicates that the service sector is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining). This was up 0.3 points from July, but still well below the average of 53.2 over the history of the survey.

BusinessNZ’s Director, Advocacy Catherine Beard said despite two consecutive months showing a lift in activity levels, the key index value for Activity/Sales (43.9) remains lackluster, while New Orders/Business (46.6) dipped slightly from July. On a more positive note, Employment (49.2) lifted to its highest result since March.

The proportion of negative comments for August stood at 60.8%, which was down from 67.0% in both July and June. Respondents continued to note the high cost of living and general economic conditions as reasons for ongoing tough times.

BNZ's Senior Economist Doug Steel said that "smoothing through monthly volatility, the PSI’s 3-month average remains deep in contractionary territory at 43.9. The PSI has been in contraction for six consecutive months which is the longest continuous period of decline since the GFC”.

Incremental improvement

Doug Steel -

New Zealand’s manufacturing sector showed further signs of improvement during August, although still in contraction, according to the latest BNZ –BusinessNZ Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI).

The seasonally adjusted PMI for August was 45.8 (a PMI reading above 50.0 indicates that manufacturing is generally expanding; below 50.0 that it is declining). This was up from 44.4 in July, but still significantly below the long term average of 52.6. The sector has now been in contraction for 18 consecutive months.

BusinessNZ’s Director, Advocacy Catherine Beard said that the PMI is heading back in the right direction, but the pathway to eventual expansion after a year and a half being firmly in contraction mode means there is still some way to go.

“The key sub-index results for Production (46.3) and New Orders (46.8) were both the strongest they have been in a few months, with the former improving significantly from June. Employment (46.6) recovered somewhat from its June/July dip, while Finished Stocks (46.2) was all but unchanged from July".

Given the ongoing improvement in activity for August, the proportion of negative comments stood at 64.2% for the current month, compared with 71.1% in July and 76.3% in June. Negative comments typically focused on the general economic recession, including lack of demand and cost of living.

BNZ’s Senior Economist Doug Steel said that “while business confidence and building consent indicators have ticked up from their very low levels offering potential for improvement over the coming 12 months, the PMI is an indicator of outcomes and continues to show that current conditions remain challenging”.

Monthly Prices Affirm Q3 CPI View

Doug Steel -

Today’s selected prices data for August gives us no cause to alter our general thinking for Q3 CPI. There was a range of ups and downs in the details, which is usually the case for these wobbly monthly indicators, but the overall net result was close to our priors.

Relief

Doug Steel -

We thought there would be a bounce in economic confidence following the dovish tones, subsequent interest rate reduction and projection of more from the RBNZ. Today’s ANZ business confidence survey confirmed a bounce. It was sizeable.

Business confidence lifted to a 10-year high, punching up to 50.6 in August, from the 27.1 in July which was already up from a low 6.1 in June. It is interesting that the August business survey details suggest a bounce was well under way before the RBNZ cut the OCR at its August meeting. This suggests the confidence swing was well underway following the dovish pivot in July, as we suggested last month. In any case, it just goes to show what a difference a few months and some relaxation in tight monetary conditions can do following a period of tightness.